Archive for the ‘Oil/Energy’ Category

posted by David on Mar 12

Not sure what anyone thinks, but I see something significant when an OPEC country actually admits this.

Predicting the end of oil has proven tricky and often controversial, but Kuwaiti scientists now say that global oil production will peak in 2014.

Their work represents an updated version of the famous Hubbert model, which correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. Many researchers have since tried using the model to predict when worldwide oil production might peak.

-Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20100312/sc_livescience/oilproductiontopeakin2014scientistspredict

posted by David on Nov 10

Demand for energy will increase by 40 percent between now and 2030, yet an insider at the International Energy Association (IEA) warns that there just isn’t enough oil in the world to supply that need.Presuming alternative energy sources aren’t easily developed or fall short of projections, and new oil production falters, much higher prices are inevitable, as experts including T. Boone Pickens have warned.

Pickens has repeatedly said that $300-a-barrel oil is in our future.

According to the agency’s just-released World Energy Outlook 2009, global oil consumption over the next five years will grow to just 88 million barrels a day, well below the 94 million barrels a day the agency forecast a year ago for total demand in 2015.

The energy watchdog’s figures are overly optimistic, according to a whistleblower within the agency, who describes IEA estimates of remaining oil supplies as more fiction than fact.

Source: http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/iea_oil_forecast/2009/11/10/284207.html

I guess this means we will see more wars and excuses for wars.

posted by David on May 25

Yep, I mentioned this before… and everyone I know thought I was crazy. Now Yahoo News writes about it.

Recession prompts fear of economic collapse, spurs breed of ’suburban survivalists’

SAN DIEGO (AP) — Six months ago, Jim Wiseman didn’t even have a spare nutrition bar in his kitchen cabinet.

Now, the 54-year-old businessman and father of five has a backup generator, a water filter, a grain mill and a 4-foot-tall pile of emergency food tucked in his home in the expensive San Diego suburb of La Jolla.

Wiseman isn’t alone. Emergency supply retailers and military surplus stores nationwide have seen business boom in the past few months as an increasing number of Americans spooked by the economy rush to stock up on gear that was once the domain of hardcore survivalists.

These people snapping up everything from water purification tablets to thermal blankets shatter the survivalist stereotype: they are mostly urban professionals with mortgages, SUVs, solid jobs and a twinge of embarrassment about their newfound hobby.

From teachers to real estate agents, these budding emergency gurus say the dismal economy has made them prepare for financial collapse as if it were an oncoming Category 5 hurricane. They worry about rampant inflation, runs on banks, bare grocery shelves and widespread power failures that could make taps run dry.

For Wiseman, a fire protection contractor, that’s meant spending roughly $20,000 since September on survival gear — and trying to persuade others to do the same.

“The UPS guy drops things off and he sees my 4-by-8-by-6-foot pile of food and I say ‘What are you doing to prepare, buddy?’” he said. “Because there won’t be a thing left on any shelf of any supermarket in the country if people’s confidence wavers.”

The surge in interest in emergency stockpiling has been a bonanza for camping supply companies and military surplus vendors, some of whom report sales spikes of up to 50 percent. These companies usually cater to people preparing for earthquakes or hurricanes, but informal customer surveys now indicate the bump is from first-time shoppers who cite financial, not natural, disaster as their primary concern, they say.

Top sellers include 55-gallon water jugs, waterproof containers, freeze-dried foods, water filters, water purification tablets, glow sticks, lamp oil, thermal blankets, dust masks, first-aid kits and inexpensive tents.

Joe Branin, owner of the online emergency supply store Living Fresh, said he’s seen a 700 percent increase in orders for water purification tablets in the past month and a similar increase in orders for sterile water pouches.

He is shipping meals ready to eat and food bars by the case to residential addresses nationwide.

“You’re hearing from the people you will always hear from, who will build their own bunkers and stuff,” he said. “But then you’re hearing from people who usually wouldn’t think about this, but now it’s in their heads: ‘What if something comes to the worst?’”

Online interest in survivalism has increased too. The niche Web site SurvivalBlog.com has seen its page views triple in the past 14 months to nearly 137,000 unique visitors a week. Jim Rawles, a self-described survivalist who runs the site, calls the newcomers “11th hour believers.” He charges $100 an hour for phone consulting on emergency preparedness and says that business also has tripled.

“There’s so many people who are concerned about the economy that there’s a huge interest in preparedness, and it pretty much crosses all lines, social, economic, political and religious,” he said. “There’s a steep learning curve going on right now.”

Art Markman, a cognitive psychologist, said he’s not surprised by the reaction to the nation’s financial woes — even though it may seem irrational. In an increasingly global and automated society, most people are dependent on strangers and systems they don’t understand — and the human brain isn’t programmed to work that way.

“We have no real causal understanding of the way our world works at all,” said Markman, a professor at the University of Texas, Austin. “When times are good, you trust that things are working, but when times are bad you realize you don’t have a clue what you would do if the supermarket didn’t have goods on the shelves and that if the banks disappear, you have no idea where your money is.”

Those preparing for the worst echo those thoughts and say learning to be self sufficient makes them feel more in control amid mounting uncertainty — even if it seems crazy to their friends and families.

Chris Macera, a 29-year-old IT systems administrator, said he started buying extra food to take advantage of sales after he lost his job and he was rehired elsewhere for $30,000 less.

But Macera, who works in suburban Orange County, said that over several months his mentality began to shift from saving money to preparing for possible financial mayhem. He is motivated, too, by memories of the government paralysis that followed Hurricane Katrina.

He now buys 15 pounds of meat at a time and freezes it, and buys wheat in 50-pound bags, mills it into flour and uses it to bake bread. He checks survivalist Web sites for advice at least once a day and listens to survival podcasts.

“You kind of have to sift through the people with their hats on a little bit too tight,” said Macera, who said his colleagues tease him about the grain mill. “But I see a lot of things (on the Web) and they’re real common sense-type things.”

“I don’t want to be a slave to anybody,” he said. “The more systems you’re dependent on, the more likely things are going to go bad for you.”

That’s a philosophy shared by Vincent Springer, a newcomer to emergency preparedness from the Chicago area.

Springer, a high school social studies teacher, says he’s most worried about energy shortages and an economic breakdown that could paralyze the just-in-time supply chain that grocery stores rely on.

In the past few months, Springer has stockpiled enough freeze-dried food for three months and bought 72-hour emergency supply kits for himself, his wife and two young children. The 39-year-old is also teaching himself to can food.

“I’m not looking for a retreat in northern Idaho or any of that stuff, but I think there’s more people like me out there and I think those numbers are growing,” he said.

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Crisis-spurs-spike-in-apf-15339847.html

posted by David on Apr 1

“If this is true, why has the price of oil dropped?”

The short answer is as follows: oil production peaked in late 2005 (source) even as demand continued to soar. Consequently, the price rose almost 400% in only three years. By July 2008, the American economy could take no more and begun to buckle under the crushing weight of soaring energy and commodity prices. Something akin to a second Great Depression began to take shape which caused a major plunge in demand for anything produced with oil, which means just about everything. CIBC analyst Jeff Rubin explains what happened in a bit more detail:

While most of the world’s newfound economic ills are being attributed to the ongoing crisis in world financial markets, and its associated source, the US housing market crash, both the timing and size suggest something else may be afoot. By any benchmark the economic cost of the 2007-2008 rise in oil prices was nothing short of staggering. A lot more staggering than the impact of plunging housing prices on housing starts and construction jobs, which has been the most obvious brake on economic growth from the housing market crash. And those energy costs, unlike the massive asset writedowns associated with the housing market crash, were borne largely by Main Street, not Wall Street, in both America and throughout the world. Certainly oil shocks are no stranger to recessions. Four of the last five global recessions were preceded by one. Yet the recent spike in oil prices doesn’t seem to get any credit for what’s happening to the world economy now.

That’s odd because it should. Curiously, an over-500% increase in the real price of oil gets ignored as a culprit behind today’s economy, eclipsed by the crisis in financial markets. Source

James Howard Kunstler explains how this extreme price volatility will impact our ability to offset further declines in production:

Many were stunned this year to witness the parabolic rise and fall of oil prices up to nearly $150 and then back around $36 by Christmas time. Quite a ride. I said in The Long Emergency that volatility would be the hallmark of post peak oil because it was obvious that advanced economies could not absorb super high prices and would crash in response; that at some point after crashing, these economies would respond to the new lower oil price, resume their cheap oil habits, and build to another price rise. . . and crash again. . . . in a declension of ever-lower industrial activity.

The tragic part of all this, of course, is that the temporary plunge in oil prices has prompted an incurious American public to assume, once again, that the global oil predicament is some kind of a fraud. Given the flood tide of fraud they have been subject to in banking and investment matters, I suppose you can’t blame them from thinking that everything is some kind of a scam. Source

While the recent drop in prices is welcome by an already-overburdened consumer, the price drop will likely bring with it deleterious long term consequences for our energy supplies. Analyst Chris Nedler explains:

As oil prices crashed from $147 this summer to around $50 today, developers withdrew their commitment to drilling new wells and building new distribution and refining projects. Under a rule-of-thumb production cost for a new, marginal barrel at around $65 today, it simply doesn’t make sense to throw millions of dollars at drilling new wells when oil futures are selling for $50. A second, more insidious factor is quietly eroding hopes for our future oil and gas supply however, and that is the continuing credit crisis. As banks remain reluctant to lend each other money — credit has also become hard to come by for anyone trying to start a capital-intensive project. And all energy projects need a great deal of capital.

Consequently, a growing drumbeat of news reports about energy projects of all kinds being delayed, cancelled, slowed, or otherwise curtailed has been issuing from the energy sector. Yet the Street seems not to have recognized that the slowdowns will limit supply in just a few years. But by focusing on near term supply, the Street is really fighting the last war when it should be pricing in a long-term shortage. Investment is already falling short of what is needed to ensure a future supply of those marginal, expensive barrels that everyone is counting on. Source

The drop in oil prices is also devastating the alternative energy industry as most alternatives tend not to attract large amounts of investment capital unless oil stays well above $120 for several (5-to-7) years. Source

For more information, see:

Time: How the 2007-2008 Oil Price Spike Set Off the Current Financial Crisis

New York Times: Washington Post: Steep Drop in Energy Prices Puts New Oil Projects on Hold

Wall Street Journal: As Oil Prices Drop, Money Dries Up for Renewable Energy

READ MORE FROM Matt Savinar AT: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

BREAKING NEWS IS AVAILABLE AT: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/BreakingNews.html

posted by David on Jan 27

Its about time someone does this.

TEXAS TOWNSHIP — Kalamazoo Valley Community College is looking to the winds to help power the school.

WWMT-TV reports the southwest Michigan school this week was having cranes hoist 25-foot blades for a 145-foot wind turbine as part of a $250,000 project at its campus in Kalamazoo County’s Texas Township.

The 50-kilowatt turbine is expected to generate up to 15 percent of the energy needed to power the school’s technical wing.

Source: http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090127/METRO/901270420

posted by David on Nov 19

Nope.  Although consumption has slowed, we will still be hit with a maybe economic setback once our economy does recover.  What can we do?  Maybe ecourage that if the Big 3 are given a bailout check, that they use it for new techonology and the engineering jobs that willbe needed for this new technology R&D.

posted by David on Oct 30

I tried, I really did, but I could not resist.

This economic down turn is really doing us a favor. Remember as we keep having more babies, we are essentially producing new consumers. Nothing wrong with that, but keep in mind this “hard time” could get much worse than the “Great Depression” of the 30’s. This time we have the energy crisis that will pound us back down just as we try to peek our little heads out of the shit we are in. How? HIGH OIL PRICES! Thats how. That will send the cost of shipping goods way up. Did you know the first thing that is effected by energy costs rising? Food!

We will be lucky if Martial Law is not put in place… some of you who don’t believe me… fine… do what you want. In 15 years if some of you old guys are still alive… let me know how you did? I should be around to say “hi” unless I get shot by some U.N. “Peace Keeper” when I am in my back yard, having some home brewed stout.. .that my neighbors wished they could have!

posted by David on Oct 14

This is stuff I have been talking about for a long time!Do we want to be control by the rest of the world? To ensure American stays a land of the free, don’t except the governments idea of a bailout! Remember what goes up, must go down!

I feel this urgency to get as many people to see whats really going on. Its not about who’s to blame for why things are the way they are but to acknowledge that they are… and to identify who, what, and how we can get through this without going down a road that history has shown will lead to further pain and uncertainty. Fact is we cannot fix this… maybe we can get through it without compromising our deepest desires, dreams and aspirations. I know that crime will get to scary levels, I know energy will be almost un-affordable and that food will also be expensive, if not scarce. The climate changes will not help us much either. But I hope that my 1 year old daughter will be able to play in a park thats safe, go to school and learn without fear and even live in a country where people love who they are. Its not about democratic/republican or red/blue or right/wrong.. but what is the best choices we can make without regard to what our peers will think. I predicted this stuff about energy crisis/ food crisis and the next depression back in 1999. Anyone could have if they did their homework, so its was really the experts I read from that did the prediction. Whats the best thing we can do without regard to the trend of today?

posted by David on Oct 8

The whole “gun” thing is about the oil.  Oil is the very thing that took us from the “Little House on the Prairie” to where we are now.

Crime is directly related to the economy.While the crime did go up at the start of the “Great Depression of the ’30’s”, it will be much worse this time. The population is much more dense now, there is more at stake.

Do we really want a excutive leader to appoint Supreme Court justices that will take away our rights to self defense?  Yes (D.C. v. Heller), acknowledged guns as an individual right, but barely.  Obama, never supported gun rights. Remember the Supreme Court already stated that the Police are NOT obligated to defend us. (Castle Rock v. Gonzales).  Obama is protected by the secret service even now before he is elected, what about us?

 

Protect your gun rights.  Gun Politics

http://www.bobbarr2008.com/issues/second-amendment/

posted by David on Jul 28

Here are some news to swallow:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/42811/%27Sky%27s-the-Limit%27-for-Crude-says-Peak-Oil-Advocate-Buy-Drillers-Avoid-Majors?tickers=RIG,DO,ALY,CVX,COP,PBR,XOM

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/42854/No-Relief-from-120-Oil-Anytime-Soon—-or-Ever-says-Energy-Expert?tickers=RDS-A,USO,OIL,DUG,XLF,XLE

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/42974/The-End-Is-Nigh-Peak-Oil-Proponent-Forecasts-Grim-Future?tickers=vws,solr,ibe.l

Also this site: www.energyandcapital.com

The Oil, getting harder to “suck” out of the ground. Is the end of suburbia near?  If so does this mean move to the cities or start a farm out in the country?

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